Zohran Mamdani: Episode, Oct 28, 2025
Kalshi What will Zohran Mamdani say during The Daily Show?
Markets
18 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuomo | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Homeless | Yes | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grocery 2+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bernie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Free Bus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kalshi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| King | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Guard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inequality | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-25OCT28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP