Will “Fraud” be said at the next Political debates?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fraud” was said at the Political debates on 9 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 27, 2026 (53%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.

56%from settlement history only · n=17counts: any candidate
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no yes no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
any candidate
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=fraud

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Political debates

Fraud

Probability
56% · n=17
Settled
9/17 (53%)

Next listing counts: any candidate

We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during the Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Georgia Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during Iowa Senate debate? · not listed

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What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate? · settled yes

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled no

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What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate? · settled no

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What will the candidates say during the SC Republican Senate Debate? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 18 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 21, 2026FraudPolymarketYes
Oct 21, 2026FraudKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Oct 8, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Aug 20, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Aug 3, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Aug 3, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Jul 28, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Jul 27, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Jul 7, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Jun 17, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Jun 16, 2026FraudKalshiNo
May 14, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Apr 28, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Apr 21, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Feb 20, 2026FraudKalshiNo
Feb 18, 2026FraudKalshiYes
Jan 27, 2026FraudKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Fraud” said at the Political debates?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Fraud” was said at the Political debates on 9 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 27, 2026 (53%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability “Fraud” is said at the Political debates next time?
56%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any candidate.

Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP