Political debates, Aug 20, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the Massachusetts Democratic Senate Debate?
Markets
18 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 79%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 76%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | Yes | 74%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 68%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 61%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 60%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 58%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Trans / Transgender | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 46%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDEBATEMENTION-26AUG20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP