Political debates, Jul 27, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the Michigan Democratic Senate debate?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 76%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 8+ times | Yes | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 73%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 67%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AIPAC | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obama | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | Yes | 66%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 62%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 51%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | 32%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP