Political debates, May 14, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the California Governor Debate?
Markets
17 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 66%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 8+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| California Dream | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hospice | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Refinery / Refine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 50%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 44%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Newsom 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ballroom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDEBATEMENTION-26MAY14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP