Political debates, Oct 7, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during Pennsylvania Governor's Debate?
Markets
20 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 82%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 82%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 81%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Union | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 67%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 64%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Fracking / Natural Gas | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medicaid / Medicare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| School Choice / Voucher | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Property Tax | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Minimum Wage | No | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Cannabis | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA | No | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abortion | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDEBATEMENTION-26OCT07B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP