Political debates, Jun 17, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the Arizona Governor Debate?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Water | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 74%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Common Sense | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taco | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 50%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Second Amendment | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXGOVERNORMENTION-26JUN17C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP