Political debates, Feb 20, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Illinois Senate Democratic Primary Debate
Markets
19 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billionaire / Millionaire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grocery / Inflation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Noem / Impeach | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pension / Union | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tax | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Minimum Wage | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Housing | No | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Childcare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Insurrection Act | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricting | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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