Political debates, Oct 8, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during Michigan Senate debate?
Markets
22 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | Yes | 84%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 83%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 82%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 76%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | Yes | 73%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 71%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Medicaid / Medicare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 67%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 48%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | 77%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AIPAC | No | 73%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 70%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Union | No | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 63%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 43%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 27%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDEBATEMENTION-26OCT08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP