Political debates, Apr 28, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the CA Governor Debate?
Markets
21 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | 70%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fire / Wildfire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Newsom 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 8+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ballroom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Orange County | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Swalwell | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 49%n=12 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNYCMDEBMENTION-26APR28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP