Political debates, Jul 28, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the Wisconsin Democratic debate for governor?
Markets
17 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | Yes | 71%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 67%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 46%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 66%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Literacy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 49%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Common Sense | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP