Political debates, Jan 27, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the Illinois: U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Debate?
Markets
21 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire / Millionaire | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Housing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Childcare / Child Care | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deficit / Budget | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Noem / Impeach | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pension / Union | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 47%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Grocery / Inflation | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland / Venezuela | No | 66%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Minimum Wage | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insurrection Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Redistrict / Redistricting | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-26JAN27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP