Political debates, Jul 7, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the Michigan Democratic Senate primary debate?
Markets
17 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 8+ times | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 70%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 61%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AIPAC | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 57%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 45%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 61%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP