Political debates, Feb 18, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the Texas AG Republican debate?
Markets
18 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border Patrol | Yes | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sharia Law | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woke / DEI | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 67%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Second Amendment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 56%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-26FEB18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP