Political debates, Apr 21, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the South Carolina gubernatorial debate?
Markets
15 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Chicken | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gambling / Casino | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rural | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Epstein | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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