Political debates, Sep 30, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during California Governor Debate?
Markets
19 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | Yes | 80%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 79%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 70%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Wildfire / Fire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mental Health | Yes | 66%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 63%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 61%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Hollywood | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Newsom 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hospice | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Refinery / Refine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 30%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDEBATEMENTION-26SEP30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP