Political debates, Oct 21, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during Iowa Governor debate?
Polymarket What will be said during the Michigan U.S. Senate debate?
Markets
32 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
- Polymarket: anyone Polymarket
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 10+ times | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AIPAC | Yes | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 52%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Canada 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | No | 87%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Medicaid | No | 79%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Budget / Deficit | No | 76%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 75%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 71%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Voucher / School Choice | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ethanol / E15 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 68%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 63%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eminent Domain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Glyphosate / Roundup | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nitrate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pesticide / Herbicide | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Property Tax 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Right To Repair | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vaccine / Vaccination | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 59%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Flock | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hasan / Piker | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Muslim Brotherhood 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sharia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yacht | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Genocide | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abortion | No | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 23, 2026 14:43 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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