Political debates, Jun 16, 2026
Kalshi What will the candidates say during the Democratic Debate for NY-13?
Markets
16 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any candidate Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 73%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Subway / MTA | Yes | 68%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 62%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | No | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mental Health | No | 65%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 65%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trans / Transgender | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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