Will JD Vance say “Corrupt / Corruption”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Corrupt / Corruption” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Corrupt / Corruption
- Probability
- 23% · n=6
- Settled
- 0/6 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…his posts and encouraging people to buy their stock. Americans, according to recent polling, are increasingly describing the President as corrupt. And trading stocks --
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…to door investigations of the rampant fraud that has taken place in the state under the failed and corrupt leadership of Democrat Governor Tim Walz.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption |  Kalshi | No |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 26, 2026 | Corrupt / Corruption | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Corrupt / Corruption”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Corrupt / Corruption” at any of the 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 26, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Corrupt / Corruption” next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Corrupt / Corruption’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/corrupt-or-corruption (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=corrupt%20%2F%20corruption · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP