Will “Taiwan” be said at the next Congressional hearings?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Taiwan” was said at the Congressional hearings on 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 12, 2026 (44%), most recently on Jul 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.

46%from settlement history only · n=9counts: any witness
Last 10
4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
any witness
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=congressional-hearings&word=taiwan

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Congressional hearings

Taiwan

Probability
46% · n=9
Settled
4/9 (44%)

Next listing counts: any witness

We don’t have transcripts for Congressional hearings yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

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What will the witnesses say during Senate Artificial Intelligence hearing? · settled no

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What will the witnesses say during Senate AI Deception hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during House AI Workforce hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during House UN Accountability hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during House Shipbuilding hearing? · settled yes

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What will the witnesses say during House Oversight of Financial Crimes hearing? · not listed

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What will witnesses say during House CLARITY Act hearing? · not listed

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What will the witnesses say during the Senate Drug Supply Chain hearing? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 9 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Jul 30, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo
Jul 22, 2026TaiwanKalshiYes
Jul 15, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo
Jul 15, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo
Jul 14, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo
Jun 25, 2026TaiwanKalshiYes
Jun 17, 2026TaiwanKalshiYes
Jun 11, 2026TaiwanKalshiYes
Mar 12, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Taiwan” said at the Congressional hearings?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Taiwan” was said at the Congressional hearings on 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 12, 2026 (44%), most recently on Jul 22, 2026.
What is the probability “Taiwan” is said at the Congressional hearings next time?
46%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: any witness.

Cite parrot.markets, “Congressional hearings: ‘Taiwan’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/congressional-hearings/words/taiwan (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=congressional-hearings&word=taiwan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=congressional-hearings&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP