Congressional hearings, Jul 15, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the hearing on Supply Chain Dependency?
Markets
16 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Security | Yes | 69%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 68%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 65%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | No | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 69%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 64%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Lithium | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP