Congressional hearings, Jun 11, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Senate AI hearing?
Markets
16 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | Yes | 71%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Mythos | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Electricity / Grid | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Data Center | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autonomous | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Water | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP