Congressional hearings, Jun 25, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the hearing on China’s Economic Espionage?
Markets
13 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Security | Yes | 77%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 73%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / CCP | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Intellectual Property / IP | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Land / Farmland | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Surveillance | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | 76%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 76%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Social Media | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP