Congressional hearings, Jul 14, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the House Commercial Diplomacy hearing?
Markets
16 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Modernize | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 63%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 62%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 67%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 53%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Data Center | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL14C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP