Congressional hearings, Mar 12, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the hearing on Foreign Influence in Higher Education?
Markets
18 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 73%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Espionage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Harvard | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IP / Intellectual Property | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Propaganda | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | Yes | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Woke / DEI | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| FBI | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Privacy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 62%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Saudi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Media | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taiwan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-WITN26MAR12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP