Will “Trump” be said 3+ times on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 27, 2026, “Trump” was said 3+ times on The Last Word in 13 of 24 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 20, 2026 (54%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes no yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Trump (3+ times)
- Probability
- 41% · n=24
- Settled
- 13/24 (54%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 28 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
4 counted; 76 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 41 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 24 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) |  Kalshi | No | 2 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 2 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 1 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Trump (3+ times)” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, “Trump” was said 3+ times on The Last Word in 13 of 24 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 20, 2026 (54%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability “Trump (3+ times)” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Trump (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/trump-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=trump%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP