Will “Alliance” be said on Survivor next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Alliance” was said on Survivor in 14 of 36 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (39%), most recently on May 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=36, from settlement history), not a forecast.

54%from settlement history only · n=36counts: contestants (not the host)
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes yes no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
contestants (not the host)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=alliance

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Survivor

Alliance

Probability
54% · n=36
Settled
14/36 (39%)

Next listing counts: contestants (not the host)

We don’t have transcripts for Survivor yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will the contestants say during Survivor Season 50 Finale? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during the Survivor Season 50 Finale? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 12? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 12? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 10? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 10? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 9? · settled yes

Open the appearance

What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 9? · settled no

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 36 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 21, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
May 20, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
May 14, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
May 13, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
May 7, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
May 6, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
Apr 30, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
Apr 29, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Apr 23, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
Apr 22, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Apr 16, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
Apr 15, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Apr 9, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
Apr 8, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Apr 2, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
Apr 1, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Mar 25, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
Mar 25, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Mar 18, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Mar 18, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
Mar 12, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Mar 11, 2026AllianceKalshiYes
Mar 5, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Feb 26, 2026AllianceKalshiNo
Dec 18, 2025AllianceKalshiYes
Dec 11, 2025AllianceKalshiNo
Dec 4, 2025AllianceKalshiNo
Nov 27, 2025AllianceKalshiNo
Nov 20, 2025AllianceKalshiNo
Nov 13, 2025AllianceKalshiNo
Nov 6, 2025AllianceKalshiNo
Oct 30, 2025AllianceKalshiNo
Oct 23, 2025AllianceKalshiNo
Oct 16, 2025AllianceKalshiYes
Oct 8, 2025AllianceKalshiNo
Oct 1, 2025AllianceKalshiNo

Questions

How often is “Alliance” said on Survivor?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Alliance” was said on Survivor in 14 of 36 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 1, 2025 (39%), most recently on May 21, 2026.
What is the probability “Alliance” is said on Survivor next time?
54%, from settlement history (n=36). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: contestants (not the host).

Cite parrot.markets, “Survivor: ‘Alliance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/entertainment/survivor/words/alliance (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=survivor&word=alliance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=survivor&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP