Survivor: Episode, Apr 29, 2026
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 10?
Markets
19 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fire | Yes | 65%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safety | Yes | 65%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tie / Tied | Yes | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Drop / Dropped | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Record / Longest | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Key | Yes | 42%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| MrBeast / Beast | Yes | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Immunity Idol | Yes | 32%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Journey | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fallon | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 47%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Puzzle | No | 45%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 44%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Sit Out | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Rope | No | 34%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Comeback / Come Back | No | 25%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Dig Deep | No | 22%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | No | 18%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Hunger / Hungry | No | 17%n=20 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP