Survivor: Episode, Mar 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 4?
Markets
17 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Key | Yes | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Puzzle | Yes | 47%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Water | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safety | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immunity Idol | Yes | 32%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Fish / Fishing | Yes | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Sit Out | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fiji | Yes | 26%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fire | No | 48%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Rope | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Alliance | No | 33%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Medic / Medical | No | 31%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Comeback / Come Back | No | 22%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Billie Eilish | No | 21%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MrBeast / Beast | No | 21%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | No | 20%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Hunger / Hungry | No | 16%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXENTMENTION-PROB26MAR18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP