Survivor: Episode, Feb 26, 2026
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Episode 1?
Markets
18 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reward | Yes | 68%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fire | Yes | 39%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Puzzle | Yes | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Flint | Yes | 34%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Advantage | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strategy / Strategize / Strategic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Key | Yes | 30%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Medic / Medical | Yes | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Water | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fish / Fishing | Yes | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immunity Idol | No | 49%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fiji | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billie Eilish | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MrBeast / Beast | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Comeback / Come Back | No | 29%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 29%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | No | 25%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hunger / Hungry | No | 17%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-26FEB26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP