Survivor: Episode, Apr 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 7?
Markets
18 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fire | Yes | 54%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Key | Yes | 52%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Tie / Tied | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safety | Yes | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Puzzle | Yes | 39%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Rope | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immunity Idol | Yes | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Sit Out | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 42%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Comeback / Come Back | No | 33%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Fish / Fishing | No | 31%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Dig Deep | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Heat | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fiji | No | 30%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Medic / Medical | No | 23%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | No | 19%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Hunger / Hungry | No | 17%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP