Survivor: Episode, Mar 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Episode 3?
Markets
21 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: anyone Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reward | Yes | 70%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Advantage | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Strategy / Strategize / Strategic | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Flint | Yes | 51%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Key | Yes | 48%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Fire | Yes | 40%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Puzzle | Yes | 39%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Torch | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tribe has Spoken | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Water | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immunity Idol | No | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Medic / Medical | No | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Sit Out | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fish / Fishing | No | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fiji | No | 29%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Comeback / Come Back | No | 23%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 23%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Billie Eilish | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| MrBeast / Beast | No | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | No | 21%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Hunger / Hungry | No | 16%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAR12 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP