Survivor: Episode, Mar 25, 2026
Kalshi What will the contestants say during Survivor Episode 5?
Markets
16 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: contestants (not the host) Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond / Bonded / Bonding | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Loyal / Loyalty | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Relationship | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Strategy / Strategic | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Threat | Yes | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Target | Yes | 52%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Blood / Bloody | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ocean | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | Yes | 37%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal | Yes | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Snake | Yes | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Shelter | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Clue | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Big Move | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drama | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Million | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAR25B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP