Survivor: Episode, Apr 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Ep 8?
Markets
18 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fire | Yes | 59%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safety | Yes | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Puzzle | Yes | 47%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Tie / Tied | No | 57%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Key | No | 57%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Rope | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 45%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Immunity Idol | No | 41%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Fallon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sit Out | No | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Comeback / Come Back | No | 29%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Dig Deep | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Heat | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Medic / Medical | No | 22%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| MrBeast / Beast | No | 19%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | No | 18%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Hunger / Hungry | No | 17%n=18 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP