Survivor: Episode, Apr 30, 2026
Kalshi What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 10?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: contestants (not the host) Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Yes | 69%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Relationship | Yes | 63%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Bond / Bonded / Bonding | Yes | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Threat | Yes | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| MrBeast / Beast | Yes | 48%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Million | Yes | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | Yes | 41%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Drama | Yes | 19%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Strategy / Strategic | No | 72%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal | No | 64%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Loyal / Loyalty | No | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Snake | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Blood / Bloody | No | 43%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Fallon | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Clue | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Shelter | No | 26%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP