Survivor: Episode, Oct 30, 2025
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Episode 6?
Markets
18 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flint | Yes | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Reward | Yes | 57%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fire | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Medic / Medical | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Strength / Strong | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Key | Yes | 18%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hungry / Hunger | Yes | 16%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Target | Yes | 15%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Egg | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fish / Fishing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immunity Idol | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Puzzle | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Risk | No | 25%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Blindside / Blind Side | No | 23%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tired | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Weak | No | 15%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-25OCT30 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP