Survivor: Episode, May 14, 2026
Kalshi What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 12?
Markets
16 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: contestants (not the host) Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Yes | 72%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Relationship | Yes | 68%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Strategy / Strategic | Yes | 63%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Threat | Yes | 62%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Million | Yes | 58%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Snake | Yes | 49%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Loyal / Loyalty | Yes | 36%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Blood / Bloody | Yes | 33%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Risk | Yes | 27%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Bond / Bonded / Bonding | No | 65%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 59%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal | No | 45%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Drama | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Clue | No | 31%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fallon | No | 28%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Shelter | No | 23%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP