Survivor: Episode, May 13, 2026
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 12?
Markets
23 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safety | Yes | 69%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Strategy / Strategize / Strategic | Yes | 63%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tie / Tied | Yes | 63%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| MrBeast / Beast | Yes | 62%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Fire | Yes | 56%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Drop / Dropped | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Race | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Puzzle | Yes | 35%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Rope | Yes | 27%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Comeback / Come Back | Yes | 22%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 58%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Immunity Idol | No | 49%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Record / Longest | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 46%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Key | No | 42%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Full Tilt Boogie | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Journey | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Sit Out | No | 32%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | No | 31%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Fallon | No | 28%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Risk | No | 27%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Dig Deep | No | 20%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hunger / Hungry | No | 17%n=22 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP