Survivor: Episode, Dec 11, 2025
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during the Survivor Episode 12?
Markets
13 words · 1 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reward | Yes | 69%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Immunity Idol | No | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Blindside / Blind Side | No | 48%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fire | No | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Puzzle | No | 32%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | No | 31%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Target | No | 28%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Risk | No | 26%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Key | No | 18%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hungry / Hunger | No | 18%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 16%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Comeback / Come Back | No | 16%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Pressure | No | 16%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-25DEC11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP