Survivor: Episode, Dec 4, 2025
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during the Survivor Episode 11?
Markets
16 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reward | Yes | 68%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Strength / Strong | Yes | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Immunity Idol | Yes | 48%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Blindside / Blind Side | Yes | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trust | Yes | 19%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tie / Ties / Tied | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fire | No | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Puzzle | No | 37%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Medic / Medical | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Target | No | 33%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Risk | No | 30%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Key | No | 20%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Hungry / Hunger | No | 19%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | No | 17%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Comeback / Come Back | No | 16%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pressure | No | 16%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-25DEC04 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP