Survivor: Episode, Oct 16, 2025
Kalshi What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Episode 4?
Markets
19 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: the host Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Flint | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Reward | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trust | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | Yes | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fake | Yes | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immunity Idol | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Puzzle | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Risk | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blindside / Blind Side | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Key | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Snake | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hungry / Hunger | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Storm | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bromance | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Quit | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Target | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Unfair | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Weak | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXSURVIVORMENTION-25OCT16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP