Survivor: Episode, Mar 18, 2026
Kalshi What will the contestants say during Survivor Ep 4?
Markets
16 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: contestants (not the host) Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond / Bonded / Bonding | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Loyal / Loyalty | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Relationship | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shelter | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Strategy / Strategic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Threat | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Target | Yes | 45%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Alliance | Yes | 33%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Blood / Bloody | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clue | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ocean | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Big Move | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drama | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Million | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Snake | No | 22%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
History only. We have no transcript source for this category; the results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXENTMENTION-CONT26MAR18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP