Will Donald Trump say “Hitler”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hitler” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 18, 2024 (25%), most recently on Nov 1, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hitler
- Probability
- 49% · n=8
- Settled
- 2/8 (25%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | Hitler |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Hitler | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Hitler | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Hitler | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Hitler | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Hitler | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Hitler | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 18, 2024 | Hitler | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hitler”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hitler” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 18, 2024 (25%), most recently on Nov 1, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hitler” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hitler’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hitler (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hitler · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP