Will Donald Trump say “Nuclear” 4+ times?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear” 4+ times at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (4+, named speaker only) in 5. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nuclear 4+ times
- Probability
- 57% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or as some people call it the Iran nuclear deal, which was a road to a nuclear weapon for Iran. I…
…a little bit. Small price to pay, but we took out the nuclear power from Iran cuz yours is going to go down. They gave…
…I said we have to go and stop them from having a nuclear weapon. If they had a nuclear weapon, you wouldn't be very comfortable.…
…Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of oil. I terminated Barack Hussein Obama's JCPOA or the Iran nuclear deal,
…it's a small price to pay for not letting Iran have a nuclear weapon. And they will never have a nuclear weapon. That's already --…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Nuclear 4+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Nuclear 4+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nuclear 4+ times”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear” 4+ times at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 31, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nuclear 4+ times” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nuclear 4+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nuclear-4plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nuclear%20%284%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP