# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2026-06-17 · 23 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN17 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:37:08Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-06-17 · tn/th last 3 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-05-19 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26JUN17 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of remarks on the Administration's crackdown on crime and fraud , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	1	12	10	0.83	nYnYYYYYYY	3	1	0.6	hist	no
California	california	1	13	9	0.69	YnnnYYYnYY	3	1	0.55	hist	no
Biden	biden	1	45	31	0.69	YnnYnnYnYn	3	3	0.54	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	25	16	0.64	YYnYYnYnnn	3	2	0.53	hist	no
Somalia / Somalian / Somali	somali|somalia|somalian	1	17	11	0.65	nYYnYYYnnY	3	1	0.49	hist	no
Border	border	1	13	6	0.46	YYYYnnnYnn	3	2	0.43	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	26	12	0.46	YYYnnnnYnn	3	2	0.42	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	10	4	0.4	YnnYnYnnYn	3	1	0.42	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	8	4	0.5	YYnnYnnY	3	1	0.41	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	1	21	8	0.38	nYnnnYnYYn	3	2	0.38	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	26	12	0.46	YnYnnYYnYY	3	2	0.35	hist	no
Autism / Autistic	autism|autistic	1	4	1	0.25	nYnn	3	0	0.28	hist	no
Newsom	newsom	1	5	1	0.2	nnYnn	3	0	0.28	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	12	3	0.25	nYnnnnYYnn	3	1	0.27	hist	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	22	5	0.23	nnnnnnYYYn	3	0	0.23	hist	no
SNAP / Food Stamp	food stamp|snap	1	3	0	0	nnn	3	1	0.23	hist	no
Learing	learing	1	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	3	0	0.22	hist	no
Daycare / Childcare	childcare|daycare	1	3	0	0	nnn	3	1	0.22	hist	no
Democrat (3+ times)	democrat#3	3	3	0	0	nnn	3	3	0.21	hist	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	4	0	0	nnnn	3	0	0.19	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	13	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	3	0	0.16	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	35	6	0.17	nYnYnnnnnY	3	2	0.13	hist	no
Mamdani / Hochul	hochul|mamdani	1	0	0			3	0	0.39	prior	yes