# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2025-10-30 · 22 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25OCT30 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:28:39Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-30 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25OCT30 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Turning Point Tour at Ole Miss on October 29th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Debate	debate	3	3	1	YYY	1	0	0.58	hist	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Political Violence	political violence	3	2	0.67	YnY	1	0	0.5	hist	no
China	china	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	0	0.48	hist	no
American Dream	american dream	4	2	0.5	nYnY	1	0	0.47	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.46	hist	yes
Border	border	3	1	0.33	nYn	1	0	0.39	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.33	hist	yes
College / University	college|university	0	0			1	0	0.33	hist	yes
Terror / Terrorist	terror|terrorist	0	0			1	0	0.33	hist	no
Economy	economy	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	1	0.32	hist	yes
Drug	drug	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.32	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.32	hist	no
Israel	israel	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	1	0	0.29	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	1	0	0.29	hist	yes
Free Speech	free speech	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.28	hist	yes
Antifa	antifa	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.26	hist	no
Healthcare	healthcare	2	0	0	nn	1	1	0.26	hist	no
Middle Class	middle class	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.26	hist	no
Middle East	middle east	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes