Will JD Vance say “Free Speech”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Free Speech” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 28, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 21, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Free Speech
- Probability
- 49% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Free Speech |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Free Speech |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Free Speech | Kalshi | No |
| May 28, 2025 | Free speech | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Free Speech”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Free Speech” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 28, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 21, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Free Speech” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Free Speech’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/free-speech (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=free%20speech · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP