# JD Vance (jd-vance) · speech 2025-10-19 · 23 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25OCT19 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:07:40Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-19 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-25OCT19 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of speech at Camp Pendleton for Marine Corps' 250th Anniversary celebration on October 18th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	5	4	0.8	YYYnY	1	1	0.55	hist	yes
Border	border	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.43	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	6	2	0.33	nnnYnY	1	0	0.43	hist	no
Wage	wage	2	1	0.5	Yn	1	0	0.42	hist	yes
Israel	israel	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.35	hist	no
Usha	usha	2	0	0	nn	1	0	0.33	hist	yes
Woke	woke	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.33	hist	no
Aircraft	aircraft	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes
America First	america first	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	no
Amphibious	amphibious	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes
Bomber	bomber	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	no
Cold War	cold war	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	no
Combat	combat	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes
Department of War	department of war	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	no
Iraq	iraq	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes
Korea	korea	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes
Medal of Honor	medal of honor	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	no
Nuclear	nuclear	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	no
Proud / Pride	pride|proud	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes
Recruit / Recruitment	recruit|recruitment	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	0	0			1	1	0.4	prior	yes
Vietnam	vietnam	0	0			1	0	0.4	prior	yes