Will JD Vance say “Combat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Combat” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 19, 2025.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Combat
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…is that unlike the IRGC, the United States never targets civilians in combat. We never will do that. We never have done that. And unfortunately,…
…to echo some of what Karoline said about what we're doing to combat the rampant fraud that exists in our immigration system thanks to failed…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2025 | Combat |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Combat”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Combat” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 19, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Combat” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Combat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/combat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=combat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP