Will Donald Trump say “Amish”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Amish” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 6, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 9, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Amish
- Probability
- 55% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2025 | Amish |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Amish | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Amish | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Amish | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Amish”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Amish” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 6, 2025 (25%), most recently on Oct 9, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Amish” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Amish’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/amish (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=amish · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP